⚡ ALPHAPREDICTION

Market vs Our Model

Group-winner odds: the betting market vs our AI committee. Where do they disagree?

Market (Polymarket, de-vigged) Our model (committee Monte-Carlo) Edge = our model − market

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See match forecasts → Our accuracy →

Market odds are prediction-market prices with the bookmaker margin removed. Our model simulates every remaining group fixture 20,000× from the AI committee's per-match probabilities. Neither is gospel — the gaps are where it gets interesting.